Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Arabica Coffee February



Coffee prices were relatively stable in recent weeks, despite a stronger real and robust demand. On 8 February, Arabica coffee traded at USD 104 cents per pound, which was 0.9% lower than on the same day last month. The price was up 2.8% on a year-to-date basis but was 15.2% lower than on the same day last year. Prices are expected to increase over the medium-term on robust global consumption. Moreover, although ample supply from the 2018 harvest will likely restrain the pace of the recovery in the near-term, a gradual tightening from lower production in 2019 should also feed into higher prices. Our panelists expect prices to average USD 115 cents per pound in Q4 2019 and 128 cents per pound in Q4 2020.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Cocoa & Sugar Pricing



Prices fell in recent weeks after favorable growing conditions in West Africa boosted crop yields. On 8 February, the spot price was USD 2,222 per metric ton, which was down 4.7% from the same day last month. In addition, the price was 6.1% lower on a year-to-date basis, but was up 7.7% from the same day last year. Prices are seen creeping higher going forward. Notably, recent dry winds linked to the El NiƱo effect are likely to hit future crops yields. However, a no-deal Brexit scenario could hurt ICCO cocoa prices owing to the likely plunge in the British pound. Our panelists expect prices to average USD 2,296 per metric ton in Q4 2019 and USD 2,340 per metric ton in Q4 2020.

Sugar: Sugar prices were largely stable through January and early February, as higher output from India was broadly offset by rising oil prices. Sugar traded at USD 12.8 cents per pound on 8 February. The price was down 0.9% from the same day last month. It was 2.6% higher on a year-to-date basis, but was down 6.3% from the same day last year. A gradual reabsorption of the existing supply glut should support prices from this year onwards. Analysts expect prices to average USD 13.3 cents per pound in Q4 2019 and USD 14.7 cents per pound in Q4 2020.


Saturday, February 16, 2019

Rigs Added For Second Week

Baker Hughes reported an increase in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States this week.
The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs rose by 2 rigs, according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs increasing by 3 to reach 857 and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 1 to reach 194.
The oil and gas rig count is now 76 up from this time last year, 59 of which is in oil rigs.
While the overall rig count is up for the week, the Permian basin saw the largest drop in rigs this week, losing 5 rigs. - Read More Here 

Friday, February 15, 2019

Thermal Coal Pricing



Australian thermal coal prices dropped below USD 100 in January for the first time since late April last year and have subsequently remained there despite briefly surpassing the mark in mid-January. On 8 February, the spot price for Australian thermal coal was USD 97.2 per metric ton, which was down 0.6% from the same day last month. Moreover, it was 4.8% lower on a year-to-date basis and was down 3.7% from the same day last year. Prices have been impacted by developments in China affecting demand and disruptions to supply in Australia. In early February, Chinese authorities extended import restrictions first of all on coking coal and subsequently on thermal coal, causing large delays in the offloading of Australian cargo at Chinese ports. In addition, data for the Chinese manufacturing sector in December and January indicates a slowdown, which will weigh on demand, while the timing of the Lunar New Year also caused disruptions, as it is accompanied by a week-long market shutdown. The partial import ban could also prop up demand for domestic coal in China, further reducing demand for the commodity sourced from Australia, where supply was subject to disturbances due to heavy flooding and strikes. Prices are seen declining from their current level going forward, amid softening momentum in China and a global shift towards less polluting industries. However, a structural lack of investment in new coal production facilities should support prices somewhat. The panel projects that the price

Steel Pricing




Prices for hot-rolled coil U.S. steel slid over the past month amid signs of weaker demand and softening manufacturing activity in China. Steel traded at USD 685 per metric ton on 8 February, which was down 4.6% from the same day in January. Moreover, the price was 5.0% lower on a year-todate basis and was down 7.3% from the same day in 2018. Prices for U.S. steel are expected to decline this year largely due to a supply glut driven by strong output in China, the world’s largest steel producer, and the U.S. Moderating growth in the Asian giant is also seen weighing on demand. Analysts project that prices will average USD 668 per metric ton in Q4 2019, declining to an average of USD 622 per metric ton in Q4 2020.

European steel prices came under pressure in recent weeks against the backdrop of weakening factory output in China, the world’s largest consumer of steel. Hot-rolled coil European steel traded at USD 548 per metric ton on 8 February. The price was 4.7% lower than on the same day in January and was down 4.7% on a year-to-date basis. Moreover, it was 17.8% lower than on the same day last year. Steel prices are seen trending upwards this year on the back of healthy demand growth in Europe and despite elevated supply in the global market. Panelists see prices averaging USD 571 per metric ton in Q4 2019. Prices are seen averaging USD 616 per metric ton in Q4 2020.